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13:T109e,<div id="articlebody">Ｇ20大阪峰會落幕，其中的壓軸戲是川習會，結局看來是雷聲大雨點小，讓全球所有的「利益攸關者」，都因此鬆了一口氣。<a class="Link-02" href="/gsearch?q=%E5%B7%9D%E6%99%AE" target="_blank">川普</a>會後承諾暫不加徵新關稅、允許華為購買<a class="Link-02" href="/gsearch?q=%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B" target="_blank">美國</a>企業設備；<a class="Link-02" href="/gsearch?q=%E7%BF%92%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3" target="_blank">習近平</a>則同意增購美國商品和農產品。雙方雖未達成具體協議，但同意恢復貿易談判。對川習兩人，這次會談的結果是不滿意但可接受。因貿易休兵讓雙方可各自清理戰場，以時間換取空間。大家先比耐力，最後再比實力。<br/>
<br/>
川普商人出身，當然懂得如何在商埸上玩「競合遊戲」的道理。競合戰略是一種互補性的商業思維模式，設法先把餅做大，而不是和競爭者搶食現有的這張餅。川普在這次川習會中顯然作出了妥協，他的目的是要競選連任。中美一場貿易戰下來，美國農業州去年對中國的出口銳減。美國的中小企業也蒙受重大損失，民眾已飽受商品價格提高之害。如果美國對所有中國大陸進口產品課廿五％關稅，估計每個家庭一年要多開銷二千三百元。<br/>
<br/>
習近平把二○一九年至二○二二年中共召開廿大之前，定位為「歷史交匯時期」。習沒有選舉的壓力，但必須為他的長期執政，取得「合理化」的來源。至少不能讓他的政績，只出現「負面表列」。因此，習除了「戰略上藐視敵人」，還必須「戰術上重視敵人」。習在中共「告<a class="Link-02" href="/gsearch?q=%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3" target="_blank">台灣</a>同胞書」四十周年講話，提出了「兩制台灣方案」，讓<a class="Link-02" href="/gsearch?q=%E8%94%A1%E8%8B%B1%E6%96%87" target="_blank">蔡英文</a>在九合一選後，取得反中的話語權，民意支持度止跌回升；而香港一場「反送中」運動，使特首林鄭月娥變成了習的「豬隊友」。不僅「台獨」借力使力，中共更成為眾矢之的。為免蝴蝶效應擴大，習自知在處理中美議題時，不容出現重大差錯。<br/>
<br/>
川習會人散曲未終。川普一上台就把中共視為戰略競爭對手，他強調美國優先，就是避免中國崛起影響到美國的霸權地位。因此，貿易戰只是遏制中共的一環，川普的意圖是希望中國大陸因經濟量變而產生政治質變，也就是大陸學者所說的「既要錢又要命」。習近平已做好「持久戰」的準備，《人民日報》連續發表的「新九評」，就是為了從事內部的精神武裝。<br/>
<br/>
一山不容二虎。只要川普繼續堅持美國優先，習近平繼續作他的「中國夢」，<a class="Link-02" href="/gsearch?q=%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E9%97%9C%E4%BF%82" target="_blank">中美關係</a>就會是一場零和遊戲，就會步步接近「修昔底德陷阱」。川習在大阪峰會建立的共識，會不會因此淪為口惠而實不至，還有待進一步觀察。<br/>
<br/>
台灣無法自外於中美關係的變化，但台灣進入選戰熱季後，未見任何有意角逐大位者，提出台灣因應中美短期競合和長期零和博弈的對策，使這場總統選戰看來像是「茶壺裡的風暴」。試想，連川普都認識到，為了避免破壞和習近平會面的氣氛，暫時要把對台軍售的議題擱置一旁；而台灣卻已急著選邊站，把「親中」、「反中」，當成是這次選戰的主軸，讓「紅帽子」滿天飛。眼見參賽者為此殺得難分難解，幾乎已到敵友不分的地步。<br/>
<br/>
中美戰略競爭，不會只是一場貿易戰的輸贏；台灣的生存和發展，也不是單靠一場選舉的勝負來決定。從這次川習會的過程得知，因應中美關係是：計畫趕不上變化，變化趕不上川習兩人的一席話。台灣政治人物只圖偏安，似乎除了「凍蒜」之外，就無話可說。<br/>
<br/>
（本文已刊登於108.6.30聯合報）<br/>
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