James Baker, secretary of state from 1986 to 1992, said in Washington not long ago he believes what is known as the Taiwan issue will eventually find its own solution and what the United States has to do in the meantime is to continue its China policy of strategic ambiguity.He is confident Taipei and Beijing will straighten everything up between themselves and all Washington must do is to keep the status quo across the Taiwan Strait, which remains strategically ambiguous.
What exactly is that status quo?
Foggy Bottom’s textbook answer is the status quo across the Strait as Washington defines it.In a way of elaboration, the state department reiterates the United States is committed to its one China policy based on the three joint communiqués and the Taiwan Relations Act and does not support independence for Taiwan or any unilateral moves that may change the status quo as it sees fit in line with that commitment.That means no use of force or threat to use force by China against Taiwan and prudence on the part of Taiwan in managing all aspects of cross-Strait relations.For both sides, it means no statements or actions that would unilaterally alter Taiwan’s status. Beyond that, nothing is made clear.
With that strategic ambiguity, Washington does not specify what action it will take if and when China uses or threatens to use force against Taiwan, while making clear the United States expects a peaceful solution of the Taiwan issue.As a matter of fact, that’s the best the United States can do.
But Washington’s strategic ambiguity has been arbitrarily interpreted in Taipei as well as in Beijing.
President Chen Shui-bian regards Taiwan and China are two countries on both sides of the Strait or in his own words, “one country on each side of the Strait.”He declared it as the status quo, which, of course, is considered a unilateral move on the part of Taipei to change the status quo.Beijing has deployed close to 1,000 cruise missiles all targeting Taiwan and passed an anti-session law to codify an automatic invasion of the island, if independence is declared.China has gotten away without an American censure.Well, Uncle Sam does not want to specify what action it will take on the question of a threat to use force against Taiwan and has chosen to keep his mouth shut.
But Chen is ready to write a new constitution for Taiwan before he steps down on May 20 next year.He does not think the adoption of the constitution is a unilateral move to change the status quo, albeit it is considered a declaration of de jure independence, which the United States certainly does not support.
Probably, Washington has to replace strategic ambiguity with strategic clarity and tell Chen clearly the United States opposes any step toward independence.That may be the only way to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan.
（本文刊載於96.06.11 China Post第4版，本文代表作者個人意見）
